|
Title: Shadow Post by: Dethundrel on January 02, 2012, 08:50:43 am It was stated in a previous thread that his jump was now only 50%. And there were plans to look into putting a cap on the number of jumps he can do. Has there been any news or progress for it?
Last night I spent 4 hours chasing his ass all around HoH. He jumped 14, yes that's Fourteen times on me. And to take the cake, on the 14th jump, he just poofed into thin air, and never reappeared. It was frustrating to say the least to have him jump that many times to begin with, but to have him vanish all together, I've never done it before, but I will admit I fuckin rage quit hard! So, once I get a new mouse, do we have anything planned for changing him? Title: Re: Shadow Post by: Hunter on January 02, 2012, 11:40:25 am I could probably tweak it to be a max of maybe 2-4x for Shadowstepping. Right now its just a % chance each time. Its just a matter of having time to tweak it, and I'm still needing to finish up T6 here. Shadow hasn't changed much since I made him. Guess the RNG beat you this time :(
Title: Re: Shadow Post by: Strai on January 02, 2012, 12:53:38 pm Have to agree here, Shadows jumping does seem to have gotten rather unwieldy; i seem to chase him through a minimum of 5 steps up to 13 lately. Honestly i'd still rather have the old Shadow back with the ton of hp's over the stepping any time, the charm farming used to be a bottle neck but now it almost seems the bottle has been corked.
Title: Re: Shadow Post by: Lucadian on January 02, 2012, 01:07:17 pm I usually never get him to step on me more than 3 times. (I credit this to him "knowing" my DPS is crap ;)
But I have recently seen a lot of people in guild and in /ooc complain about having him step upwards of 10 times pretty regularly. Title: Re: Shadow Post by: Ogah on January 02, 2012, 01:49:43 pm I say don't cap his step but make him susceptible to stuns :)
Title: Re: Shadow Post by: Dethundrel on January 02, 2012, 02:15:37 pm If the jump chance is 50%, then somethin else is screwy. Statistically speaking, by the time I got to 14, he should have only a 1 in 16,384 chance of making a jump ( yes I know it's still 50%, some won't understand the math ). If you /random 1000, you also have a 1 in 16,384 chance that you will get less than 500 more than 14 times in a row.
And in all the times I've killed him, not 1 time has he ever died right away, he has ALWAYS jumped on me after respawn. Even ignoring the number of jumps, why the hell would he just poof on me? HoH has been doin funky stuff lately, if my 4.0 T3 war dies on an Avatar of Heavens but my mostly T1 bard with only 1 3.0 and 1 1.5 can tank it down it just boggles me. Title: Re: Shadow Post by: Hunter on January 02, 2012, 04:22:26 pm I agree. Statically he shouldn't be jumping that much. RNG = Broken? :(
Title: Re: Shadow Post by: wolfegunr on January 02, 2012, 06:37:57 pm There's absolutely no doubt there is more than 50 or 60% chance of him jumping. He always jumps on me at least once, almost always twice, and usually 4-6 times. I'm killing him with UC war, UC monk(full v augs), Sorc 50 pali (almost uc, full v augs) and 3 mages 4.0 for extra dps with a tag-along shaman. He always pops below 50% and above someting like 12%, he seems to have a chance to do it about every so many seconds after hes below 50% health. The people who kill him in 1-2 jumps have insane dps, so he has less chance, the slower you kill the more he will jump. When I used to have less dps he would step 10 times regularly.
Title: Re: Shadow Post by: lerxst2112 on January 02, 2012, 06:56:36 pm If the chance is 50% and there is only one random check each time you engage him then it would seem that jumping 14 times would be extreme. However, if there is a random check every x seconds or x% damage then there's no way to know how many jump checks failed, and it could be that it passed 14 times out of 20, 50, 100, or more. Title: Re: Shadow Post by: Felony on January 02, 2012, 08:03:01 pm Usually only jumps once for me. The times it jumps more then once it jumps either 3 or 4 times.
The trigger seems to be around 15% life. Not sure if its written as: If hp < value or If hp = value or If hp < value && hp > value or if he uses If hp <= value and a $random_result Each way has pro and con. Only thing I will comment on is that if using $random_result it favors certain values. Title: Re: Shadow Post by: Brokyn on January 02, 2012, 08:46:43 pm If the jump chance is 50%, then somethin else is screwy. Statistically speaking, by the time I got to 14, he should have only a 1 in 16,384 chance of making a jump ( yes I know it's still 50%, some won't understand the math ) It almost sounds like you don't understand the math... Before you started, you could suggest the odds of him jumping 14 times were lower, but "by the time you got to 14" the odds were exactly 1 in 2... Title: Re: Shadow Post by: Lucadian on January 02, 2012, 09:06:27 pm To comment on the warrior dying/bard living... I noticed recently my warrior has been taking insane amounts of damage during some encounters, too. Had him die to Shadow for the first time last night, but then my pally stepped over and tanked him with no problem with about 60k less hp. Idk.. could just be bad luck, but if everyone else is having problems, too, maybe it should be looked at.
Title: Re: Shadow Post by: Noel on January 02, 2012, 09:59:08 pm Damage shield on Shadow?
or maybe he is reposting a lot? Title: Re: Shadow Post by: Dethundrel on January 02, 2012, 10:02:35 pm If the jump chance is 50%, then somethin else is screwy. Statistically speaking, by the time I got to 14, he should have only a 1 in 16,384 chance of making a jump ( yes I know it's still 50%, some won't understand the math ) It almost sounds like you don't understand the math... Before you started, you could suggest the odds of him jumping 14 times were lower, but "by the time you got to 14" the odds were exactly 1 in 2... As I said, some people will not understand the math. I was speaking statistically. Let me break it down to help you understand. If he has a 1 in 2 chance of jumping and does jump, the next time, the odds of him jumping again ( making the jump check ) would be 1 in 4, since he already hit the first jump on the 1 of 2 odd. Next jump is a 1 in 8 chance, then 1 in 16 chance ect. Exponentiate it out 14 times, and you get odds of 1 in 16,384. Yes he has a 1 in 2 chance of jumping each individual time, but the odds of him actually doing it 14 times is 1 in 16,384. Based on simple statistical data. If you have something insiteful to add, please do so. If you are just here to try and pick apart my shit, find something more constructive to do. Title: Re: Shadow Post by: Ponzi on January 02, 2012, 10:50:06 pm I've killed Shadow zillions of times.. Since i had my first UC, my strat has always been Either UC the other toons through Shadow / V2s at the same time (get more tokens, cash, v2s, and v1s at once)... and eventually burn down T3/T4 mobs while running ldon at the same time on the toon needing the UC.. I love multi-tasking, what can i say? :)
But yeah, i've killed shadow *a lot*. And I've never, ever seen the good side of his RNG. My guess (and it's just a guess) is this: We all know he can start jumping at like 44%.. What i am guessing is happening is the code is having him check 50% jump at 44%, 50% jump at 40%, 50% jump at 30% life, 50% jump at 20% life, 50% jump at 15% life.... And 50% at 14,13,12,11,10 (jk on the last part)... But from my experience he's doing the 50% check multiple times in the same encounter.. And since theres a good 6-7 different spots in his lifebar where we see him jump.. He's likely checking 50% jump at each spot.. Which accounts for the utter rarity of him not jumping at all *on a fresh spawn not a rejump from public someone else has been killing* (I think i've seen Shadow die without a jump 3 times in my entire career of probably 300 shadow kills thats a worse RNG drought than T5 Essences). I got all the toons i'd conceivably want UC'd done already so i don't even care anymore. But i'd bet dollars to doughnuts he's getting jump checks with 50% jump at each section of his lifebar, and that's whats effing the expected math all up. It's not even remotely close to a 50% jump percentage, as anyone who kills him regularly will tell you emphatically. Title: Re: Shadow Post by: Thebone on January 03, 2012, 07:45:04 am I see it like this.... If all of us that are past HOH could do it then you can too....
Quit making everything easy for the new players that come on the fourms Crying about how hard it is.. and then blast your high end players for trying to help you in the new Zones. I say that T5 essence drop rate is jacked I get told to quit... They cry about Shadow jumping a few times and your going to fix it? All the high end guilds got it done with it... Then all the new people can do it to. Just put some time in it like we did. Title: Re: Shadow Post by: oldepharte on January 03, 2012, 08:06:23 am Hmm, about those statistics....
Break it down for me one more time please. As you do so, show me how a previous jump/no jump event in the same fight has a bearing on the next jump/no jump event. My point is simply that if the results of the first event are not factored into and have no effect on the second jump then your chance of any given jump/no jump event is identical to the first all the way through the chain. I have not seen anything that suggests input from the first event affects the second or subsequent events. (Think about flipping coins: it is 50-50 EACH toss. Got 10 heads in a row? The odds of getting a heads on the next flip remain 50%, despite our (very common) belief that "tails is due". In the alternative, think about drawing a letter tile out of a bag with 104 tiles, 4 of each of the letters of the English alphabet. Your chance of any given letter is 4 / 104 or 1 / 26. Assume you draw a "Z". Your chance of drawing another "Z" is now only 3 / 103 because the removal of the tile from the bag clearly changed the number of tiles in the problem. However, if you replace the "Z" before drawing the second tile, your chances are back up to 1 / 26. There is no similar process to the tile draw without replacement here. This event is identical in property to that of flipping a coin: Each jump / no jump event is unrelated to any other.) My personal experience from building UC's on Shadow has been he tends to jump 0-3 times on me. His worst has been 9 jumps for me. I generally kill him a half a dozen times a day during the week and expect to do so for at least another 2 UC's, probably 4 cause I'm ill in the haid! I suspect the poof at the end of 14 jumps was a timer failure. I understand that you have an hour to kill him from first engaging. (Anecdotal from in game discussions.) While my team is not pure thug, I do manage to kill Shadow in just under 4 minutes if he does not jump. If he were to jump on me 14 times I would be out of luck because of travel times to move from one fight to the next in the chain. Perhaps an older, wiser head can speak to the 1 hour limit I've heard mentioned? Skeezy Ratty Troll CAVEAT: I am neither a statistician nor an expert on Shadow, but I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night. Title: Re: Shadow Post by: Strai on January 03, 2012, 08:36:43 am Wasnt actually whining Bone, was merely inputting my opinion on a thread about how Shadow's stepping seems to have changed somewhat recently for some unknown reason. I've been here long enough to remember Shadow before he got the step ability, so no i'm not a noob wanting a handout.
Title: Re: Shadow Post by: Dethundrel on January 03, 2012, 08:39:44 am Bone: Don't take shit so personal. No one here is crying, I'm simply asking if there has been any progress on a previously stated plan to change. I know all you high end guys did it the way it currently is, and it's not like anyone is saying "fix it or we quit". Things evolve and change, it's the way the world turns. If you did it when it was "the hard way" let that be your sense of pride instead of QQ'ing that if you had to do it, everyone else must as well.
Skeezy: I never said the first jump actually had any factual change on the % of the next jump. I'm simply speaking in statistical chances. Every single jump has a 50% chance, but the statistical odds of him actually making that jump do change after every cycle. Edited for iPod typos and autocorrect BS. Title: Re: Shadow Post by: Strai on January 03, 2012, 08:45:15 am But it was funny to see the thread hijacked so you could whine about t5 essences and people getting anything they want when you were told no, sound like my kids "but his bag had more candy than mine daddy!!! waaaaaahhh!!" Nowhere did Hunter state he WOULD change anything, possibly just check to see if anythings changed; you know like making it harder for the "new people" than it was for you. If something has changed wouldn't be fair to them would it?
Title: Re: Shadow Post by: kelie on January 03, 2012, 09:37:27 am Hey bone, don't even mention that for people who played a while ago it was easier to get UC (everyone in group got points per mob) and the fact that augs were CHEAPER when you were able to first get them.. I started playing after Halloween, i'm working hard, playing everyday but some of the changes were made HARDER for us, we didn't get to sell t3-4 pieces for 200k+, it's not like money is pouring in, all I do is farm GEMS GEMS GEMS. Only time I can buy an aug is during double loot, so if you want to act like we want handouts then whatever you want, its not easy starting out right now.
Title: Re: Shadow Post by: Noel on January 03, 2012, 10:24:58 am DISCLAIMER: THIS IS NOT MINE - STOLEN FROM post found through Google
Quote Probability can seem confusing but it isn't really - at this level it's just about counting and ratios. A chance of something happening is, simply, the count (or total) of what is required as a ratio of all possible outcomes. When you reach the 7th throw, the chance of a head on that particular throw is 1/2, and obviously that's because, for that throw only, a head is the one result required out of 2 possible results - and that's always the case for any particular throw. So, what you may require from one throw is different from what you may require from a series of throws. If we look at a series of throws: For two throws, the reason why HH has a probability of 1/4 isn't because we multiply 1/2 by 1/2 - that's just a method of counting. The 1/4 represents one required result (i.e. HH) from four possible results (i.e. HH, HT, TH and TT). If we throw the coin three times, the possible results are: Three heads: 1 way Two heads and one tail: 3 ways Two tails and one head: 3 ways Three tails: 1 way Total: 8 ways So the chances of getting three heads are 1/8 (and the method for calculating this quickly is (1/2)^3). But note that there are 3 ways of getting two heads and a tail, so the probability of this is 3/8. You can count in this manner all the way up to seven throws and beyond (if you have the time and patience to do it!) so that, for seven throws, you get the possibility of: 7H: 1 way 6H and 1T: 7 ways 5H and 2T: 21 ways 4H and 3T: 35 ways 3H and 4T: 35 ways 2H and 5T: 21 ways 1H and 6T: 7 ways 7T: 1 way Total: 128 ways Finally, the chances for seven heads are the same if you throw a single coin seven times, or if you throw seven coins at once, or seven people each throw a single coin, or any other combination of seven throws. That's because (as long as each throw is fair) the number of possible outcomes is always 128, and the number of times you can get seven heads is always one, so the probability of seven heads will always be 1/128. In brief, then, the odds don't "depreciate" with the number of throws: the number of possibilities increases, and how that effects the odds depends on what it is you're looking for (require), e.g. if you?re looking for two heads from two throws, the odds are lower than two heads from three throws, or from four throws, and so on. Title: Re: Shadow Post by: Fugitive on January 03, 2012, 10:42:50 am we didn't get to sell t3-4 pieces for 200k+, I rotted all my pieces btw, so quit assuming its not easy starting out right now. I disagree Edit for clarfication I disagree because it is very easy to start out.. Players are having this rough time cause they are trying to be "end game" over night You can get all the way to ya'lls 4.0s done like butter including the gear But this is enough of a hijack lets look @ what the OP said to try to get it back on topic It was stated in a previous thread that his jump was now only 50%. And there were plans to look into putting a cap on the number of jumps he can do. Has there been any news or progress for it? Last night I spent 4 hours chasing his ass all around HoH. He jumped 14, yes that's Fourteen times on me. And to take the cake, on the 14th jump, he just poofed into thin air, and never reappeared. It was frustrating to say the least to have him jump that many times to begin with, but to have him vanish all together, I've never done it before, but I will admit I fuckin rage quit hard! So, once I get a new mouse, do we have anything planned for changing him? Title: Re: Shadow Post by: kelie on January 03, 2012, 10:58:50 am It's the mentality of todays gamer, I dont want to do something I know i'm capable of in YEARS, i wanna do it and be the best as fast as possible... it's just how it's evolved. Letting me know that it will take me years and years to be relevant doesnt make me want to play.
Title: Re: Shadow Post by: Fugitive on January 03, 2012, 11:01:35 am ;D
heh I understand Title: Re: Shadow Post by: kelie on January 03, 2012, 11:07:20 am The more annoying thing is the "better then thou" mentality that most of the people have in ooc that makes us want to become better too to shut them the fuck up?
Title: Re: Shadow Post by: Ponzi on January 03, 2012, 12:57:38 pm Like i said before, i don't even kill him anymore, all my melee are UC'd and my mages are sorc 41'd (i said close enough and gave up heh).
Dispute this fact: Shadow is supposed to jump 50% of the time. He does not die within even a stones throw of 50% of the time without jumping. Period. And it's not even close. I can count *on one hand* the amount of times i've ever downed Shadow on the initial engage, and I have 5 UCs. I've killed him with 3.5 pet casters and FireIV pally.. I've killed him with Aug 6 UC'd PAL/PAL/MNK/WAR.. I've killed him with 4.0 Petcasters /stuck to a Pally while i smoked AFK. I've killed him at every level of DPS imaginable (because face it, we're slaves to urban legends about DPS influencing his jumps, group makeups, pub vs. gi, or whatever). For a group of up and comers, it's brutal since it takes a long. long time to reclear paths of popped Avatars to get to his next location. For groups of ubers, it's even more mind-numbing since there isn't avatars in the way and if he jumps 6-10 times it's literally dead, wasted time with no result to show for it: scampering back and forth for nothing vs. at least token/v2 charm/gem farming, etc.. The whole encounter has devalued the 3.5 book to the point it's given away or rotted.. He's no longer even a stepping stone in the epic progression. Heck back in the day getting the book was the roughest part of the 3.5. Now it's a complete afterthought. The encounter no longer challenges the overpowered, and no longer stands in the way of the underpowered. It's merely an alternative to ldon for better or worse (better money, tokens, v2 charms, etc). And even if Hunter fixed Shadow to the encounter it's billed as, it won't be as fast of a UC as grinding LDON the old-fashioned way, just a way to garner more plat + tokens to get a headstart on finishing out T3/T4 armor and cash for strike augs. The whole thing is just off. For better or worse. But no matter what, i'll smack anyone in the head with a rolled up newspaper who claims Shadow jumps as intended, cuz he jumps a boatload more than 50% of the time. /shrug. Title: Re: Shadow Post by: Thebone on January 03, 2012, 03:40:05 pm Hey bone, don't even mention that for people who played a while ago it was easier to get UC (everyone in group got points per mob) and the fact that augs were CHEAPER when you were able to first get them.. I started playing after Halloween, i'm working hard, playing everyday but some of the changes were made HARDER for us, we didn't get to sell t3-4 pieces for 200k+, it's not like money is pouring in, all I do is farm GEMS GEMS GEMS. Only time I can buy an aug is during double loot, so if you want to act like we want handouts then whatever you want, its not easy starting out right now. I didn't play when the ldon points were like that sooo yeah... I have farmed all 10 of my UC's the same way you have. I like Fugi Didn't sell much... I have sold a few 4.5's and that's about all... I have gotten everything I have the same as all of you.... Well besides the fact that when I was doing it no one was selling I had to beat the boss for my gear. I had to beat MCP for my 4.0's All anyone has to do now is throw a WTB in ooc and bam you got it... you dont have to earn anything anymore all you have to do is farm gems to get gear how is this hard? Title: Re: Shadow Post by: kelie on January 03, 2012, 04:03:22 pm I have gear, I farm gems for augs...how else can you earn money for the ore?
Title: Re: Shadow Post by: oldepharte on January 03, 2012, 04:06:11 pm I have gear, I farm gems for augs...how else can you earn money for the ore? Sell gear to folks thebone is objecting to crying about difficulty? :o /em apologizes, his evil twin brother Skippy made him type that!. ;) Skeezy Ratty Troll Title: Re: Shadow Post by: kelie on January 03, 2012, 04:09:20 pm lol Skeezy =D I gave away free gear all morning, i'm an enemy of the state! :D
Title: Re: Shadow Post by: Drast on January 08, 2012, 12:28:45 am You either grind LdoN or Shadow. both have there up and down side. Either way it is a "Grind".
they don't call it Uber if everyone could do it or be it in a couple hours. If it bugs ya so much log off and watch some tv or dvd's Title: Re: Shadow Post by: Lucadian on January 08, 2012, 12:31:13 am TV watching = uber!! (at least my Dad thinks so.)
Shadow is better if you can down him fast usually... Also gotta work in how many times he jumps... But it's less mind-wearing to farm him, in my opinion. Title: Re: Shadow Post by: Hunter on January 08, 2012, 01:09:24 am Its just one of those Epic Challenges to beat the RNG just like for the Epic 2.5 zone.
Title: Re: Shadow Post by: whatzizface on January 08, 2012, 02:38:21 am I like shadow, Last time we met we had a rum and coke (Or he gave me enought time to make one) So i personally like him, My wife on the other hand seems to take issue with the fact that me screaming at a computer screen after the thrird jump is somewhat wrong in the sense that a grown man shouldnt be screaming at the computer when the dog is humping his leg and the house is leaking water. Women huh? I dont understand them for shit.
Title: Re: Shadow Post by: Ogah on January 08, 2012, 10:00:41 am Shadow is a great encounter and a way to beat the damn LDoN farming and the UC is just that Ultimate! It should require an Ultimate amount of work or dedication to get BUT RNG absolutely feels a little broken in this regard.
To add a quick aside to this (read derail) - RNG gave me 9x Okeanos, 9x Thur, and 2x Imsety the other day in PoD. That just feels broken especially when ICE gave me ALL the Okeanos and EARTH gave me ALL the Thurs... The chances of that happening are friggin ridiculous. Also, considering that I've cleared LDoNs 2, 3, and 4 (entire zones) at least 10 times over and haven't seen a single charm upgrade - thats 10 times over for EACH - so 30 zone clears - just feels like something is off. Back to Shadow - max jumps would be really nice but I really like STUNNABLE more, it could actually require skill to make the encounter manageable instead of tank & spank up to X amount of jumps. Title: Re: Shadow Post by: Lucadian on January 08, 2012, 05:37:51 pm I'd have to agree with the RNG feeling broken... I talk to a few people regularly and I always get questions like.." Have you noticed a decrease chance for V2's to drop in HoH lately?" or "Man, been in LDoN for 4 hours and not 1 charm drop."
If this was just an "every now and then" occurence, then I might could understand, but this is coming from people who have been on the server for years and after a long time of farming certain items, you get a feel for how the RNG usually acts. I'm still saying the RNG needs to be looked at/tweaked... Sure T6 is important, but so is previous content. Title: Re: Shadow Post by: Hunter on January 08, 2012, 11:01:40 pm I don't know how to tweak the RNG. Its in the source code. I'm planning to update the source code again soon anyways.
Title: Re: Shadow Post by: lerxst2112 on January 09, 2012, 12:01:56 am The random code in the source code hasn't changed in a long time. Random is just that, random over long periods of time. |