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Author Topic: armor upgrades  (Read 16342 times)
Hunter
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« Reply #15 on: March 29, 2012, 10:49:25 am »

We all need to go back to school and learn our 2nd grade math.
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Gyan1010
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« Reply #16 on: March 29, 2012, 10:58:19 am »

Using that math you are figuring if there was a spawn 5 out of 5 times which would be the 10%*10%*10%*10%*10=.00100%.

Yes if the chance it 10% to spawn a boss and there are 5 mobs, then the chance to get 5 bosses from 5 mobs is exactly 0.001 %

The chance to spawn EXACTLY 1 boss is 0.1 * 0.9 * 0.9 * 0.9 * 0.9 * 5 (ways this can happen) = 0.32805 = 32.805 %
The chance to spawn EXACTLY 2 bosses is 0.1 * 0.1 * 0.9 * 0.9 * 0.9 * 10 (ways this can happen) = 0.0729 = 7.29 %
The chance to spawn EXACTLY 3 bosses is 0.1 * 0.1 * 0.1 * 0.9 * 0.9 * 10 (ways this can happen) = 0.0081 = 0.81 %
The chance to spawn EXACTLY 4 bosses is 0.1 * 0.1 * 0.1 * 0.1 * 0.9 * 5 (ways this can happen)  = .00045 = .045%
And as you said the chance to get all 5 is 0.001 %
Since all of these outcomes don't stomp on each other we can add them to = 40.951% of 1 OR MORE bosses spawning from 5 spawns

Checked by my original method of NO bosses spawning 0.9 * 0.9 * 0.9 * 0.9 * 0.9 = .59049 = 59.049%
Means the chance of 1 or more spawning = 100% - 59.049% = 40.951%
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Gyan1010
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« Reply #17 on: March 29, 2012, 10:59:28 am »

We all need to go back to school and learn our 2nd grade math.
Probability is a college class... one Xiggie never took  Wink
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Felony
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« Reply #18 on: March 29, 2012, 12:14:14 pm »

who really cares, its improved.
The averages now say you most likely will not need to spend 1.5m to spawn these.
Love all around.
Btw dont you know Monks do not do math. Just rabbit punch it in the face until it submits.
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Gyan1010
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« Reply #19 on: March 29, 2012, 12:25:16 pm »

Yeah I don't really care what the drop rate is as long as its better, just arguing the point since his 1st comment tried to make me look stupid.

Btw I play a monk... also check this out. Monks do awesome math! http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/WhosCounting/story?id=98615&page=1#.T3SZLWGIq5I
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Xiggie | Stone
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« Reply #20 on: March 29, 2012, 08:44:12 pm »

I think you pretty much took care of that on your own. All I did was point it out. No college course needed.
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Gyan1010
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« Reply #21 on: March 30, 2012, 07:49:39 am »

You really wanna keep this going? Xiggie dude I respect your EQ experience, I use your links post all the time, and I anxiously away seeing your sport a 6.0 on magelo because I'm pretty sure your the best shot at seeing the monk one 1st. But on this your just wrong. Just let it go.
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Xiggie | Stone
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« Reply #22 on: March 30, 2012, 09:30:41 am »

You're telling me to let it go and you're continuing to post on it yourself. You may be more educated than I am. You took you some courses in college and maybe even got yourself a degree. You signed up for a little statistics class and now call yourself a statistician. You come on here spout math that few people know and most don't care to know. You tell people condescendingly, "hey you bunch of fucking idiots what you think is 50% is really 40%" knowing full well that most people are not going to challenge you because we are not even sure what math your talking about. But it does not take a college degree to figure out you are full of shit. There is no magic math out there that changes something that is so common knowledge that it's ridiculous. Anyone I have ever known has figured statistics like this using the same math. No amount of passive aggressive insults is going to change common sense. Now if you feel like you need to have the last word or get the last insult in you can come back and do whatever you need to, I won't be responding to anything further. Thank you though for using your in game name as your forum name.
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Gyan1010
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« Reply #23 on: March 30, 2012, 09:55:07 am »

Wow someone is bitter. I was about to just not respond more until the last part where still you think it is just common sense that your right. I thought about linking some actual math page for you then I found this short little article explaining probability and drop chances using WoW as an example.
http://wow.joystiq.com/2010/01/13/drop-chance-probability/

And I would never say "hey you bunch of fucking idiots...", I'm trying to educate not insult.

btw there is a little calculator on that page, try putting in 10 as the drop rate and 5 as number of runs because there are 5 spawns here. Any guesses on what you get?
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Brokyn
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« Reply #24 on: March 30, 2012, 10:19:05 am »

Xiggie, man, you gotta know when to give up...  In a lot of cases I can stand with ya while you rail against someone on here, but you are fighting a losing battle...

Gyan's math is right, and it's fairly basic probability math.
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We have enough youth, how about a fountain of smart?
Hurley
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« Reply #25 on: March 30, 2012, 10:22:56 am »

Regardless what the drop percentage is, it is a LOT better than it was before. 10x more likely to be exact and thats just a beautiful thing. Can we perhaps not act like 12 year olds and argue about uselss things? Or is it actually 11.495 year olds were acting like? I cant quite remember that equation.
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Xiggie | Stone
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« Reply #26 on: March 30, 2012, 10:46:23 am »

When I see I am wrong I say I am wrong. I was wrong and you were right. A link would have helped a lot earlier on. The language used, though similar made a lot more sense in that article. It is a lot more ignorant to insist you are right when you know you are wrong than it is to admit you are wrong when you thought you were right, no matter the sting to your pride. I was wrong and you were right, no buts to it.
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Xiggie | Stone
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« Reply #27 on: March 30, 2012, 10:48:16 am »

Oh, forgot. Sorry I insulted you.
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barrettd04
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« Reply #28 on: April 02, 2012, 06:14:27 pm »

Aww, Xiggie your last 2 posts brought a tear to my eye.. Grin
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