I did this in the "Quality of Life Suggestion" forum, but started playing with numbers, and thought it might be a useful stat, rather than getting buried in a forum thread. I could do more numbers for other situations if requested.
ODDS for getting a specified armor piece in T4 based on number of tokens handed in
There are 16 classes, so here are the odds to get a specific class on subsequent tokens... (for example if you're looking for BEASTLORD arms - the odds of having the boss drop that specific arm (T4) given the number of boss spawns)
Based on the bosses dropping TWO class specific armor pieces per loot (the way T4 is set up currently)
1 - 12%
2 - 23%
3 - 32%
4 - 40%
5 - 48%
6 - 54%
7 - 59%
8 - 64%
9 - 69%
10 - 72%
11 - 76%
12 - 79%
13 - 81%
14 - 83%
15 - 86%
16 - 87%
17 - 89%
18 - 90%
19 - 91%
20 - 92%
21 - 93%
22 - 94%
23 - 95%
24 - 95%
25 - 96%
[...]
Every 5 tokens, you get a 50% chance at the piece you want... every 25 tokens you have a 96% chance at the piece you want.
And with 50 tokens, there's a 99.94% chance (or 16 in 10,000) that you will get the piece you want.BUT - that means that 1 in every 25th time, you're gonna have a string of BAD luck when it takes MORE than 25 tokens to get your piece. And one in every 625 attempts, it's gonna take you more than 50 tokensBASED ON DROPPING ONLY 1 PER BOSS1 - 6%
2 - 12%
3 - 18%
4 - 23%
5 - 28%
6 - 32%
7 - 36%
8 - 40%
9 - 44%
10 - 48%
11 - 51%
12 - 54%
13 - 57%
14 - 59%
15 - 62%
16 - 64%
17 - 67%
18 - 69%
19 - 71%
20 - 72%
21 - 74%
22 - 76%
23 - 77%
24 - 79%
25 - 80%
26 - 81%
27 - 82%
28 - 83%
29 - 85%
30 - 86%
31 - 86%
32 - 87%
33 - 88%
34 - 89%
35 - 90%
36 - 90%
37 - 91%
38 - 91%
39 - 92%
40 - 92%
41 - 93%
42 - 93%
43 - 94%
44 - 94%
45 - 95%
46 - 95%
47 - 95%
48 - 95%
49 - 96%
50 - 96%
[...]
Every 10 tokens, you get a 50% chance at the piece you want... every 50 tokens you have a 96% chance at the piece you want.BUT - that means that 1 in every 25th time, you're gonna have a string of BAD luck when it takes MORE than 50 tokens to get your piece.The point is the 50/50 point is at 5 or 6 tokens
Every 5 tokens you turn in, you have a ~50% chance at a specific class drop.
