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[Thebone]

I see it like this.... If all of us that are past HOH could do it then you can too....

Quit making everything easy for the new players that come on the fourms Crying about how hard it is.. and then blast your high end players for trying to help you in the new Zones.

I say that T5 essence drop rate is jacked I get told to quit... They cry about Shadow jumping a few times and your going to fix it?

All the high end guilds got it done with it... Then all the new people can do it to. Just put some time in it like we did.

[oldepharte]

Hmm, about those statistics....

Break it down for me one more time please.

As you do so, show me how a previous jump/no jump event in the same fight has a bearing on the next jump/no jump event.

My point is simply that if the results of the first event are not factored into and have no effect on the second jump then your chance of any given jump/no jump event is identical to the first all the way through the chain.

I have not seen anything that suggests input from the first event affects the second or subsequent events. 

(Think about flipping coins: it is 50-50 EACH toss.  Got 10 heads in a row?  The odds of getting a heads on the next flip remain 50%, despite our (very common) belief  that "tails is due".  In the alternative, think about drawing a letter tile out of a bag with 104 tiles, 4 of each of the letters of the English alphabet.  Your chance of any given letter is 4 / 104 or 1 / 26.  Assume you draw a "Z".  Your chance of drawing another "Z" is now only 3 / 103 because the removal of the tile from the bag clearly changed the number of tiles in the problem.  However, if you replace the "Z" before drawing the second tile, your chances are back up to 1 / 26. 

There is no similar process to the tile draw without replacement here.  This event is identical in property to that of flipping a coin:  Each jump / no jump event is unrelated to any other.)

My personal experience from building UC's on Shadow has been he tends to jump 0-3 times on me.  His worst has been 9 jumps for me.  I generally kill him a half a dozen times a day during the week and expect to do so for at least another 2 UC's, probably 4 cause I'm ill in the haid!

I suspect the poof at the end of 14 jumps was a timer failure.  I understand that you have an hour to kill him from first engaging. (Anecdotal from in game discussions.)  While my team is not pure thug, I do manage to kill Shadow in just under 4 minutes if he does not jump.  If he were to jump on me 14 times I would be out of luck because of travel times to move from one fight to the next in the chain.  Perhaps an older, wiser head can speak to the 1 hour limit I've heard mentioned?

Skeezy Ratty Troll

CAVEAT:  I am neither a statistician nor an expert on Shadow, but I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night.

[Strai]

Wasnt actually whining Bone, was merely inputting my opinion on a thread about how Shadow's stepping seems to have changed somewhat recently for some unknown reason. I've been here long enough to remember Shadow before he got the step ability, so no i'm not a noob wanting a handout.

[Dethundrel]

Bone: Don't take shit so personal. No one here is crying, I'm simply asking if there has been any progress on a previously stated plan to change. I know all you high end guys did it the way it currently is, and it's not like anyone is saying "fix it or we quit".  Things evolve and change, it's the way the world turns. If you did it when it was "the hard way" let that be your sense of pride instead of QQ'ing that if you had to do it, everyone else must as well.

Skeezy: I never said the first jump actually had any factual change on the % of the next jump.  I'm simply speaking in statistical chances. Every single jump has a 50% chance, but the statistical odds of him actually making that jump do change after every cycle.

Edited for iPod typos and autocorrect BS.

[Strai]

But it was funny to see the thread hijacked so you could whine about t5 essences and people getting anything they want when you were told no, sound like my kids "but his bag had more candy than mine daddy!!! waaaaaahhh!!" Nowhere did Hunter state he WOULD change anything, possibly just check to see if anythings changed; you know like making it harder for the "new people" than it was for you. If something has changed wouldn't be fair to them would it?

[kelie]

Hey bone, don't even mention that for people who played a while ago it was easier to get UC (everyone in group got points per mob) and the fact that augs were CHEAPER when you were able to first get them.. I started playing after Halloween, i'm working hard, playing everyday but some of the changes were made HARDER for us, we didn't get to sell t3-4 pieces for 200k+, it's not like money is pouring in, all I do is farm GEMS GEMS GEMS. Only time I can buy an aug is during double loot, so if you want to act like we want handouts then whatever you want, its not easy starting out right now.

[Noel]

DISCLAIMER: THIS IS NOT MINE - STOLEN FROM post found through Google

Probability can seem confusing but it isn't really - at this level
it's just about counting and ratios. A chance of something happening
is, simply, the count (or total) of what is required as a ratio of all
possible outcomes.

When you reach the 7th throw, the chance of a head on that particular
throw is 1/2, and obviously that's because, for that throw only, a
head is the one result required out of 2 possible results - and that's
always the case for any particular throw.

So, what you may require from one throw is different from what you may
require from a series of throws. If we look at a series of throws:

For two throws, the reason why HH has a probability of 1/4 isn't
because we multiply 1/2 by 1/2 - that's just a method of counting. The
1/4 represents one required result (i.e. HH) from four possible
results (i.e. HH, HT, TH and TT).

If we throw the coin three times, the possible results are:

Three heads:      1 way
Two heads and one tail:   3 ways
Two tails and one head:   3 ways
Three tails:      1 way
Total:         8 ways

So the chances of getting three heads are 1/8 (and the method for
calculating this quickly is (1/2)^3). But note that there are 3 ways
of getting two heads and a tail, so the probability of this is 3/8.

You can count in this manner all the way up to seven throws and beyond
(if you have the time and patience to do it!) so that, for seven
throws, you get the possibility of:

7H:           1 way
6H and 1T:     7 ways
5H and 2T:    21 ways
4H and 3T:    35 ways
3H and 4T:    35 ways
2H and 5T:    21 ways
1H and 6T:     7 ways
7T:        1 way
Total:   128 ways

Finally, the chances for seven heads are the same if you throw a
single coin seven times, or if you throw seven coins at once, or seven
people each throw a single coin, or any other combination of seven
throws. That's because (as long as each throw is fair) the number of
possible outcomes is always 128, and the number of times you can get
seven heads is always one, so the probability of seven heads will
always be 1/128.

In brief, then, the odds don't "depreciate" with the number of throws:
the number of possibilities increases, and how that effects the odds
depends on what it is you're looking for (require), e.g. if you?re
looking for two heads from two throws, the odds are lower than two
heads from three throws, or from four throws, and so on.

[Fugitive]

we didn't get to sell t3-4 pieces for 200k+,

I rotted all my pieces btw, so quit assuming

its not easy starting out right now.

I disagree


Edit for clarfication

I disagree because it is very easy to start out..

Players are having this rough time cause they are trying to be "end game" over night

You can get all the way to ya'lls 4.0s done like butter including the gear

But this is enough of a hijack lets look @ what the OP said to try to get it back on topic

It was stated in a previous thread that his jump was now only 50%.  And there were plans to look into putting a cap on the number of jumps he can do.  Has there been any news or progress for it?
Last night I spent 4 hours chasing his ass all around HoH. He jumped 14, yes that's Fourteen times on me. And to take the cake, on the 14th jump, he just poofed into thin air, and never reappeared. It was frustrating to say the least to have him jump that many times to begin with, but to have him vanish all together, I've never done it before, but I will admit I fuckin rage quit hard! So, once I get a new mouse, do we have anything planned for changing him?

[kelie]

It's the mentality of todays gamer, I dont want to do something I know i'm capable of in YEARS, i wanna do it and be the best as fast as possible... it's just how it's evolved. Letting me know that it will take me years and years to be relevant doesnt make me want to play.

[Fugitive]

 

heh I understand

[kelie]

The more annoying thing is the "better then thou" mentality that most of the people have in ooc that makes us want to become better too to shut them the fuck up?

[Ponzi]

Like i said before, i don't even kill him anymore, all my melee are UC'd and my mages are sorc 41'd (i said close enough and gave up heh).

Dispute this fact:

Shadow is supposed to jump 50% of the time.

He does not die within even a stones throw of 50% of the time without jumping. Period.

And it's not even close.

I can count *on one hand* the amount of times i've ever downed Shadow on the initial engage, and I have 5 UCs.

I've killed him with 3.5 pet casters and FireIV pally.. I've killed him with Aug 6 UC'd PAL/PAL/MNK/WAR.. I've killed him with 4.0 Petcasters /stuck to a Pally while i smoked AFK. I've killed him at every level of DPS imaginable (because face it, we're slaves to urban legends about DPS influencing his jumps, group makeups, pub vs. gi, or whatever).

For a group of up and comers, it's brutal since it takes a long. long time to reclear paths of popped Avatars to get to his next location.

For groups of ubers, it's even more mind-numbing since there isn't avatars in the way and if he jumps 6-10 times it's literally dead, wasted time with no result to show for it: scampering back and forth for nothing vs. at least token/v2 charm/gem farming, etc..

The whole encounter has devalued the 3.5 book to the point it's given away or rotted.. He's no longer even a stepping stone in the epic progression. Heck back in the day getting the book was the roughest part of the 3.5. Now it's a complete afterthought. The encounter no longer challenges the overpowered, and no longer stands in the way of the underpowered. It's merely an alternative to ldon for better or worse (better money, tokens, v2 charms, etc). And even if Hunter fixed Shadow to the encounter it's billed as, it won't be as fast of a UC as grinding LDON the old-fashioned way, just a way to garner more plat + tokens to get a headstart on finishing out T3/T4 armor and cash for strike augs.

The whole thing is just off. For better or worse. But no matter what, i'll smack anyone in the head with a rolled up newspaper who claims Shadow jumps as intended, cuz he jumps a boatload more than 50% of the time. /shrug.

[Thebone]

Hey bone, don't even mention that for people who played a while ago it was easier to get UC (everyone in group got points per mob) and the fact that augs were CHEAPER when you were able to first get them.. I started playing after Halloween, i'm working hard, playing everyday but some of the changes were made HARDER for us, we didn't get to sell t3-4 pieces for 200k+, it's not like money is pouring in, all I do is farm GEMS GEMS GEMS. Only time I can buy an aug is during double loot, so if you want to act like we want handouts then whatever you want, its not easy starting out right now.

I didn't play when the ldon points were like that sooo yeah... I have farmed all 10 of my UC's the same way you have. I like Fugi Didn't sell much... I have sold a few 4.5's and that's about all... I have gotten everything I have the same as all of you.... Well besides the fact that when I was doing it no one was selling I had to beat the boss for my gear. I had to beat MCP for my 4.0's

All anyone has to do now is throw a WTB in ooc and bam you got it... you dont have to earn anything anymore all you have to do is farm gems to get gear how is this hard?

[kelie]

I have gear, I farm gems for augs...how else can you earn money for the ore?

[oldepharte]

I have gear, I farm gems for augs...how else can you earn money for the ore?

Sell gear to folks thebone is objecting to crying about difficulty?   

/em apologizes, his evil twin brother Skippy made him type that!. 

Skeezy Ratty Troll

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